PERENCANAAN KEBUTUHAN PENJUALAN KAYU PADA TPK REJOSARI KPH MALANG MENGUNAKAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Riandi, M.Yazid and Suryani, Dhebys and Sabilla, Wilda Imama (2020) PERENCANAAN KEBUTUHAN PENJUALAN KAYU PADA TPK REJOSARI KPH MALANG MENGUNAKAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING. Diploma thesis, Jurusan Teknologi Informasi.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Riandi, M.Yazid “Perencanaan Kebutuhan Penjualan Kayu Pada TPK Rejosari KPH Malang Mengunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing”. Pembimbing: (1) Dhebys Suryani . Skom ., MT., (2) Wilda Imama S. Skom ., Mkom. Skripsi, Program Studi Teknik Informatika, Jurusan Teknologi Informasi, Politeknik Negeri Malang, 2020. Tempat Penimbunan Kayu (TPK) adalah suatu tempat untuk menyimpan kayu sebelum kayu dirakit, diangkut, diolah atau dipasarkan. Tempat penimbunan kayu biasanya dekat dengan tempat pengolahan/pemasaran. KPH Malang adalah wilayah pengelolaan hutan sesuai fungsi pokok dan peruntukannya, yang dapat dikelola secara efisien dan lestari. Tempat Penimbunan Kayu (TPK) Rejosari KPH Malang mengalami permasalahan dalam memprediksi jumlah penjualan kayu. Terkadang penjualan kayu mengalami lonjakan pembeli atau sebaliknya mengalami penurunan. Volume penjualan kayu yaitu kondisi ketika kapasitas penjualan kayu melebihi kapasitas sebelumnya dan belum adanya sistem perencanaan atau peramalan untuk penjualan pada periode selanjutnya berdampak pada penjualan pihak Tempat Penimbunan Kayu (TPK) Rejosari KPH Malang. Untuk membantu menyelesaikan permasalahan tersebut maka diperlukan suatu sistem peramalan untuk meramalkan jumlah penjualan kayu untuk periode selanjutnya. Berdasarkan permasalahan diatas maka penulis menggunakan metode triple exponential smoothing untuk melakukan peramalan jumlah penjualan kayu pada periode selanjutnya. Dari hasil pengujian didapatkan nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error terkecil dengan Golongan kayu jati pada jenis kayu AI sebesar 16.10% dengan alpha 0.1, jenis kayu AII sebesar 33.03% dengan alpha 0.3, Jenis Kayu AIII sebesar 15.31% dengan alpha 0.3. Sehingga dari data tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa nilai error yang dihasilkan sangat berbeda untuk setiap golongan kayu, dan jenis kayu, hal tersebut dikarenakan bervariasinya nilai data jumlah penjualan kayu tersebut. Kata Kunci : Triple Exponential Smoothing, peramalan, kayu, tpk   ABSTRACT Riandi, M.Yazid. "Planning for Timber Sales Needs at TPK Rejosari KPH Malang Using Triple Exponential Smoothing Method". Advisors: (1) Dhebys Suryani. Skom., MT. (2) Wilda Imama S. Skom., Mkom. Thesis, Informatics Engineering Study Program, Information Technology Department, State Polytechnic of Malang, 2020. Tempat Penimbunan Kayu (TPK) is a place to store wood before wood is assembled, transported, processed or marketed. Timber hoarding sites are usually close to processing / marketing sites. KPH Malang is a forest management area and according to its main function and designation, which can be managed efficiently and sustainably. KPH Rejosari Malang Timber Hoarding Place (TPK) has problems in predicting the amount of timber sales. Sometimes timber sales experience an increase or vice versa. Timber sales volume is a condition when the sales capacity of wood exceeds the previous capacity and the absence of a planning or forecasting system for sales in the next period has an impact on the sales of the Rejosari KPH Malang Timber Hoarding Place (TPK). To help solve this problem, a forecasting system is needed to predict the number of wood sales for the next period. Based on the above problems, the authors use the triple exponential smoothing method to forecast the amount of wood sales in the next period. From the test results, the smallest Mean Absolude Percentage Error value was 16.10% for AI wood type with alpha 0.1, AII wood type was 33.03% with alpha 0.3, Type AIII Wood was 15.31% with alpha 0.3. So from these data it can be concluded that the resulting error value is very different for each wood class and type of wood, this is due to the variation in the value of the data on the amount of wood sales. Based on the above problems, the authors use the triple exponential smoothing method to forecast the amount of wood sales in the next period. From the test results obtained the lowest Mean Absolude Percentage Error value with teak wood type in AI wood of 16.10% with alpha 0.1, wood type AII of 33.03% with alpha 0.3, Type of Wood AIII of 15.31% with alpha 0.3. So from these data it can be concluded that the resulting error value is very different for each wood class and type of wood, this is due to the variation in the value of the data on the amount of wood sales. Based on the above problems, the writer used triple exponential smoothing method to forecast the amount of wood sales in the next period. From the test results obtained the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error value with teak wood type in AI wood of 16.10% with alpha 0.1, wood type AII of 33.03% with alpha 0.3, Type of Wood AIII of 15.31% with alpha 0.3. From the data, it can be concluded that the resulting error value is very different for each wood class and type of wood, this is due to the variation in the value of the data on the amount of wood sales. From the test results, the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error value was 16.10% for AI wood type with alpha 0.1, AII wood type was 33.03% with alpha 0.3, Type AIII Wood was 15.31% with alpha 0.3. can be concluded that the resulting error value is very different for each wood class and type of wood, this is due to the variation in the value of the data on the number of wood sales. Keywords: Triple Exponential Smoothing, forecasting, wood, tpk

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Triple Exponential Smoothing, peramalan, kayu, tpk
Subjects:	A Computer Science > Information Science
Divisions:	Jurusan Teknologi Informasi > Teknik Informatika
Depositing User:	M.Yazid Riandi
Date Deposited:	15 Dec 2020 12:33
Last Modified:	15 Dec 2020 12:33
URI:	http://repota.jti.polinema.ac.id/id/eprint/353

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