PERAMALAN HARGA GABAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT-WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Fauriza, Farhan Akbar (2023) PERAMALAN HARGA GABAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT-WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING. Diploma thesis, Teknologi Informasi.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Fauriza. Farhan Akbar. “Peramalan Harga Gabah Menggunakan Metode Holt�Winters Exponential Smoothing”. Pembimbing: (1) Gunawan Budi Prasetyo, S.T., M.MT., Ph.D. (2) Vit Zuraida S.Kom., M.Kom. Skripsi, Program Studi Teknik Informatika, Jurusan Teknologi Informasi, Politeknik Negeri Malang, 2023. Tanaman Gabah (Oryza Savita,sp) masuk ke dalam kelompok tanaman pangan pokok yang sangat penting bagi kehidupan masyarakat Indonesia. Sampai saat ini, lebih dari 50% produksi Gabah nasional berasal dari areal sawah di Pulau Jawa. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Kabupaten Ponorogo adalah lembaga pemerintah yang bertanggung jawab untuk mengumpulkan, mengolah, menganalisis, dan menyebarkan data statistik di Indonesia. BPS Kabupaten Ponorogo akan melakukan survei, sensus, dan pengumpulan data dari berbagai sumber setiap bulannya, baik dari sektor publik maupun swasta, serta melakukan pengolahan data menggunakan metodologi yang tepat. Adapun beberapa kendala yang dihadapi oleh BPS Kabupaten Ponorogo dalam melakukan pencatatan harga Gabah yaitu masih kurangnya informasi tentang patokan harga Gabah dan untuk mengidentifikasi potensi peningkatan maupun penurunan hasil dari produktivitas pertanian Gabah di daerah tersebut sehingga dapat menimbulkan gejolak harga yang menyebabkan inflasi pada harga Gabah di Kabupaten Ponorogo. Pada penelitian sebelumnya metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing diterapkan untuk peramalan harga bahan pangan di Kabupaten Pamekasan menghasilkan nilai MAPE 2,63%. Dari beberapa penelitian tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing sangat baik untuk memperkirakan data untuk periode waktu kedepan dengan mengacu pada riwayat data sebelumnya. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan peramalan harga Gabah menggunakan metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smooting menghasilkan nilai rata-rata MAPE sebesar 3,51%. Nilai MAPE tersebut berdasarkan skala kriteria MAPE termasuk dalam kategori baik, sehingga menunjukkan metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing mampu dalam meramalkan harga Gabah pada BPS Kabupaten Ponorogo dengan baik. Dan hasil rata-rata dari kuesioner user acceptance testing sistem ini memiliki presentase 73.4% sehingga dapat membantu BPS Kabupaten Ponorogo dalam meramalkan harga Gabah. ABSTRACT Fauriza. Farhan Akbar. "Forecasting Grain Prices Using the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method". Supervisors: (1) Gunawan Budi Prasetyo, S.T., M.MT., Ph.D. (2) Vit Zuraida S. Kom., M. Kom. Thesis, Informatics Engineering Study Program, Department of Information Technology, State Polytechnic of Malang, 2023. Grain plants (Oryza Savita, sp) are included in the group of staple food plants which are very important for the lives of Indonesian people. To date, more than 50% of national grain production comes from rice fields on the island of Java. The Ponorogo Regency Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is a government agency responsible for collecting, processing, analyzing and disseminating statistical data in Indonesia. BPS Ponorogo Regency will conduct surveys, censuses and collect data from various sources every month, both from the public and private sectors, as well as carry out data processing using appropriate methodology. There are several obstacles faced by BPS Ponorogo Regency in recording grain prices, namely the lack of information about benchmark grain prices and identifying potential increases or decreases in yields from grain agricultural productivity in the area, which can cause price fluctuations that cause inflation in grain prices in the district. Ponorogo. In previous research, the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method was applied to forecast food prices in Pamekasan Regency, producing a MAPE value of 2.63%. From several studies, it can be concluded that the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method is very good for estimating data for future time periods by referring to previous data history. Based on the results of grain price forecasting calculations using the Holt�Winters Exponential Smoothing method, it produces an average MAPE value of 3.51%. The MAPE value based on the MAPE criteria scale is included in the good category, thus showing that the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method is capable of predicting grain prices at the Ponorogo Regency BPS. And the average results from the user acceptance testing questionnaire for this system have a percentage of 73.4% so that it can help Ponorogo Regency BPS in predicting grain prices. Keywords: Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method, Oryza Savita,sp, BPS, MAPE, inflation, user acceptance testing

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method, Oryza Savita,sp, BPS, MAPE, inflation, user acceptance testing
Subjects:	A Computer Science > Information Science
Divisions:	Jurusan Teknologi Informasi > Teknik Informatika
Depositing User:	Farhan Akbar Fauriza
Date Deposited:	16 Jan 2024 03:46
Last Modified:	16 Jan 2024 03:46
URI:	http://repota.jti.polinema.ac.id/id/eprint/802

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